IEA、石油備蓄を放出

      2017/02/26

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6/24の日経新聞のトップ記事ですが、
日量200万バレル、6年ぶり、とか、
供給不安に対応、とか、
動かぬOPECをけん制、とか書いてありますが、

この石油市場価格の下げトレンドでこんなことすると、アレ?ヘンだなと思います。
しかも日量200万バレルといっても全体の2.8%でしかないのです。

まあ、動機はいろいろあるのでしょうが、

その根底には「ピークオイル」問題というよりは「オイルクランチ(石油需給逼迫)」が近づいているというのが、
欧米での見方です。
日本では一切このことには触れられませんね。

石油時代が終わろうとしています。

同時に原子力のコントロールを失う悪夢の始まりでもある。

http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/954032/peak_oil_is_getting_closer_but_the_world_is_not_ready.html

ーー一部訳と原文引用開始ーー

「ピーク・オイルは近づいている、しかし世界はそれに備えていない。」

安い石油の終わりは各国政府に石油時代以後への備えをさせるよりは
物価上昇の抑制対策でパニックを引き起こさせている。

それはやけっぱちになっているのか、それとも強さの表れなのか?

先週突然、主要な石油消費国、とりわけ欧州やアメリカが、
高騰した石油の市場価格を押さえるために、緊急備蓄用石油の放出に合意した。

これは、湾岸戦争以後3度目のことだ。

公式見解では、リビア情勢の悪化で当地からの石油輸出減少を補う為としているが、
ほんとうは、アメリカやその他の石油消費国が、
世界最大の石油輸出国サウジアラビアに
原油価格上昇を抑えるに十分な産油量を増加させる能力がないのではないかと思い始めたことが原因だ。

というのは、この二月にサウジアラビアの石油担当の高官が我が国の石油生産余力は誇張されていると言ったとリークされたからだ。

「石油の新しい時代」

動機がどうであれ、この決定は石油市場への政府の介入の新しい時代の幕開けのように見える。
2、3年のうちに石油価格が恒常的に上昇したときに、政府がどのように対処するかという予行演習ということだ。

幾人かの評論家はよりつっこんだ物言いをしている、
この動きは我々がすでにピーク・オイル時代に突入しているという証拠だと。

彼らはまた、石油の市場価格の上昇は、主要石油生産国が中国(すでにアメリカについで世界第二の大石油消費国になっている)やインドなどの新興国の旺盛な石油需要に応える能力に対する信頼度が落ちているということを反映しているのだと言っている。

確定的なピーク・オイルの証拠ということではないとしても、
国際社会では石油供給能力に疑いをもたれているということを示しており、
我々はピーク・オイルに非常に近づいているということかもしれないと。

「オイルサンドは解決にはならない」

コストがかかるだけで需要を満たす事はない。さらに甚大な環境破壊を引き起こす。

「我々の経済は石油にどっぷり浸かっている」

石油価格の上昇は経済成長をストップさせる。それは、工業化社会は石油の上に成り立っているから。
石油価格が上昇すれば、ビジネス機会を小さくし、雇用機会はその分減る。
石油価格が上昇するということは、オイルマネーは消費国から産油国に流れ、ビジネスに必要なキャッシュフローは減り、債務を返済することが困難になる。
債務不履行が増えれば、銀行や政府の債務負荷により一層の不安定さを増す。
ユーロ圏や米英は全てすでに重い債務を負っており、石油や食料価格の上昇は彼らを崖っぷちに追いやる。

・・・

眠たくなったので、ざっくり略です。

結局、今回の政府の行動はピーク・オイルに備えるというものではなくて、
この2、3年内に起こるであろうそれを待ち、その時も対症療法を試みるだけのつもりのように見える。

各国政府はピーク・オイルに対処するすべはなく、石油時代は大混乱のうちに終わるだろう。。

ーー原文ーー

28th June, 2011

The end of cheap oil has got governments panicking to control prices rather than planning for a post-oil era. Tom Levitt reports

Was it a sign of desperation or show of strength?

In a surprising move, the major oil consuming countries, principally Europe and the US, agreed last week to release some of their emergency reserves of oil in an attempt to try and cut the high market price of oil.

It was only the third time in history such collective action had been taken, the previous being during the Gulf War in 1991 and in 2005, after Hurricane Katrina damaged offshore oil rigs, pipelines and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico.

Officially, it was to offset the loss of oil from Libya as a result of the ongoing conflict in the country. But there are suggestions the US and others had lost faith in the World’s biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, being able to increase oil production enough to keep prices from rising.

This comes after a leaked memo from a senior Saudi oil executive in February alleged the country’s oil reserves were being overstated.

New era of oil

Regardless of the motives, the decision is being seen as the start of a new era of government intervention in the oil market.

‘We have learnt a big lesson. This is a dry run for how governments will respond in a few years time when we get a permanent oil price rise,’ says John Miles, chairman of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security.

Some observers go further in saying the move is evidence that we may already be entering a ‘peak oil’ period.

They say rising market prices reflect a falling confidence in the ability of key oil producing countries to increase production to meet the rising demand for oil from emerging nations like China (already the world’s second largest oil consumer after the US) and India.

David Strahan, author of The Last Oil Shock, says while not definitive proof of peak oil, ‘it shows doubts amongst countries about oil supplies and suggests we may be very close to peak oil’.

Tar sands no answer

This new period, the ‘approach to peak oil’ as Dr Richard Miller (ODAC) refers to it, has eroded spare capacity and reduced the amount of new oil coming on stream to replace declines from existing fields around the world.

It’s production process is three times more carbon-intensive than conventional oil sources – with extraction requiring the creation of vast open mines to get to the mixture of oil, clay and sand. In Canada, which holds the largest known deposits, extraction has also been linked to rising incidence of cancer and the pollution of major rivers with arsenic, lead and mercury.

Our economy is locked into oil

While the approach of the oil industry is not surprising, the recent government intervention is more unexpected.

It shows the real worry governments have about high oil prices ‘putting the brakes’ on economic growth. It also shows how dependant and reliant industrialised countries like the UK, have become on oil.

David Korowicz explains: ‘Firstly, rising prices squeeze out less essential consumption leading to business closures and unemployment. Secondly, higher oil prices mean more money flows out of oil consuming countries into oil producers. Less money flowing around the economy means less money for businesses, and less money for people to service their debts. Growing defaults further destabilise banks and government debt loads. The Eurozone, the US, and the UK are all suffering under massive debts, rising oil (and food) prices could effectively push them over the edge.’

The UK and world economies are effectively ‘locked into’ an unsustainable position. But rather than tackle the enormity of the crisis peak oil presents, the UK and others have decided to use any means possible to ‘wriggle out of a high oil price’.

John Miles says the government’s reaction shows it continues to be ‘behind the curve’ on peak oil. ‘They should be getting ready for how to deal with it, but my fear is they will wait and try to respond to it in a few years time.’

Willy De Backer believes it will take a major shock before countries look to a post-oil future. He fears we are already entering a period of unpredictable developments or ‘black swan events’, which could stifle economic recovery and lead to civil unrest.

He says the problem is compounded by the lack of transparency amongst oil producing countries and the difficulty in knowing how much oil is really out there. This has left politicans scared about speaking out on the issue for fear of being too alarmist and frightening people, says De Backer.

Oil era will end in riots

In summary, the future of oil, say peak oil observers, is caught between society’s long term need for a divorce, its current addiction, and the short term priorities of politicians and investors.

As a report by Deutsche Bank, ‘The Peak Oil Market: Price Dynamics at the End of the Oil Age’, pointed out, with so many parts of our economy, especially food prices, closely linked to oil prices, our eventual divorce from oil is likely to be messy.

The findings are similar to a recently revealed report that UK ministers commissioned but then refused to publish, which warned of civil unrest from ‘peak oil’ energy shortages.

Despite all the warnings about supply and volatile prices, the Deutsche Bank report still did not expect governments to prepare for the post-oil era.

‘I think some governments are already spooked by high oil prices,’ says Mike Childs. ‘Trying to keep oil prices down is a failure to recognise that oil prices are only going one way and that is up. Increasing demand and dwindling supplies paint an ugly picture.’

The UK department for energy and climate change insist last week’s intervention was a ‘short-term measure’ which, ‘does not alter out position or commitment to move to a low carbon economy’.

Others disagree. Shaun Chamberlin and a DECC advisor, says the department is caught between two conflicting aims: keeping energy available and at a low cost while trying to reduce emissions, primarily through a high carbon price.

‘The two aims are pulling against each other,’ he says. The question for him is whether the UK will take on ideas like the transition town movement and adapt to a post-oil era or wait for the crisis?

 - ドクターのつれづれ。, もったいない学会